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Torfaen

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Nick Thomas-Symonds
Nick Thomas-SymondsLabour · Torfaen
10 people on asylum support in Torfaen

Rank 302 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 1.06 per 10,000 puts Torfaen in the 19th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. Accommodation and support for 10 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.4M a year.

What asylum costs Torfaen

£226Kestimated hotel costs/year
£26Ksubsistence payments/year
£12KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 10 people on asylum support in Torfaen(0.01% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Torfaen: asylum numbers holding steady

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

12
14950Mar 2022Dec 2025Peak Dec 2024Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20221
Jun 20221
Sept 20221
Dec 20221
Mar 20231
Jun 20231
Sept 20234
Dec 20239
Mar 202412
Jun 202412
Sept 202412
Dec 202414
Mar 20259
Jun 20259
Sept 202512
Dec 202512

Trend

+0Latest quarter change
+11Change across series
16Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation10
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
10
Homes for Ukraine
114
Afghan programme
17
Resettlement cumulative
33

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine114
Afghan programme17
Resettlement cumulative33

Population context

All pathways total141
Share of local population0.15%

Ethnic composition projection

Torfaen: White British 95.2% (2021) to 81.0% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Torfaen

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 81% in 2051White Other 6% in 2051Asian 6% in 2051Mixed 3% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixed

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Torfaen

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
97%
2021
95%
2026proj
93%
2031proj
91%
2036proj
89%
2041proj
86%
2046proj
84%
2051proj
81%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Religion projection

Muslim 0.4% (2021) → 0.8% (2051). Christian 44.2% → 10.5%.

Religion: Torfaen

527497092%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 87% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

3.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.15). 98.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Torfaen

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 85% in 2051Foreign-born 15% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Why Torfaen is changing

-1.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.3pp
Local migration
+6.1pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Torfaen on UK Demographics →