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South East

Vale of White Horse

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Georgia Gould
Georgia GouldLabour · Queen's Park and Maida Vale

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Vale of White Horse.

85 people on asylum support in Vale of White Horse

Rank 187 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 5.58 per 10,000 puts Vale of White Horse in the 47th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. Accommodation and support for 85 people at £107 per person per day is about £3.3M a year.

What asylum costs Vale of White Horse

£1.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£217Ksubsistence payments/year
£102KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 85 people on asylum support in Vale of White Horse(0.09% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Vale of White Horse: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

94
9463310Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20147
Jun 20147
Sept 20147
Dec 20149
Mar 20157
Jun 20158
Sept 20158
Dec 20154
Mar 20164
Jun 20162
Sept 20162
Dec 20167
Mar 20177
Jun 20172
Sept 20173
Dec 20172
Mar 20182
Sept 20201
Dec 20201
Mar 20213
Jun 20213
Sept 20215
Dec 20215
Mar 202211
Jun 202221
Sept 202225
Dec 202225
Mar 202324
Jun 202334
Sept 202325
Dec 202359
Mar 202464
Jun 202459
Sept 202483
Dec 202487
Mar 202590
Jun 202582
Sept 202587
Dec 202594

Trend

+7Latest quarter change
+87Change across series
39Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation85
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
85
Homes for Ukraine
592
Afghan programme
380
Resettlement cumulative
44

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine592
Afghan programme380
Resettlement cumulative44

Population context

All pathways total1,057
Share of local population0.69%

Ethnic composition projection

Vale of White Horse: White British 83.2% (2021) to 67.8% (2051). 80% CI: 67.3, 71.9%.

Ethnic composition: Vale of White Horse

024477195% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 61% in 2061White Other 11% in 2061Asian 7% in 2061Black 3% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Vale of White Horse

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
90%
2021
83%
2031proj
79%
9%
2041proj
74%
10%
2051proj
68%
11%
8%
2061proj
61%
11%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Vale of White Horse ranges from50.6% to 67.5%by 2051. That is a 16.9pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.5% (2021) → 3.0% (2051). Christian 51.7% → 11.4%.

Religion: Vale of White Horse

022436586%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 81% in 2051Muslim 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

14.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.38). 94.4% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Vale of White Horse

930507091%Census 2021UK-born 57% in 2051Foreign-born 43% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.9% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
black20% internal, 3.6% international
other16.6% internal, 4.8% international
white other15.9% internal, 3.7% international
asian14.3% internal, 4.6% international
mixed15% internal, 1.9% international
white british9.9% internal, 0.4% international

Why Vale of White Horse is changing

-6.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
+0.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Vale of White Horse on UK Demographics →