Trend
-39 Latest quarter change
+433 Change across series
39 Official data points
Warwick
435 on asylum support. Rank 81 nationally, 10 in West Midlands. Rate: 28.08 per 10,000 (85th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Warwick has 435 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 81 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 28.08 per 10,000 residents places it around the 85th percentile. 363 are in contingency accommodation (83.4% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Warwick
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 71
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 1
Contingency accommodation 363
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 474
Afghan programme 107
Resettlement cumulative 37
Population context
All pathways total 1,016
Share of local population 0.66%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Warwick: WBI 75.9% (2021) → 43.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2046. 80% CI: 39.7–46.7%.
Ethnic composition — Warwick
White British White Other Asian Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.6% (2021) → 3.4% (2051). Christian 47.5% → 11.1%.
Religion — Warwick
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Nativity
16.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.49). 91.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Warwick
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Warwick is changing
-7.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 60.8%
Mixed 64.2%
White Other 70.6%
Other 64.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 69.4%
Mixed 44.8%
White Other 45.7%
Other 59.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 44.1%
Mixed 43.5%
White Other 55%
Other 50.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
435 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
28.08 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
363 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in West Midlands by supported asylum.