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East of England

Watford

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Matt Turmaine
Matt TurmaineLabour · Watford
24 people on asylum support in Watford

Rank 269 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 2.23 per 10,000 puts Watford in the 29th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 11 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 24 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.9M a year.

What asylum costs Watford

£542Kestimated hotel costs/year
£61Ksubsistence payments/year
£29KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 24 people on asylum support in Watford(0.03% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Watford: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

14
201370Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20147
Jun 201413
Sept 201416
Dec 201418
Mar 201517
Jun 201515
Sept 201518
Dec 201516
Mar 201614
Jun 201615
Sept 201615
Dec 20167
Mar 20177
Jun 201710
Sept 201712
Dec 201714
Mar 201816
Jun 201811
Sept 201811
Dec 20184
Jun 20191
Sept 20194
Dec 20194
Mar 20208
Jun 20208
Sept 202012
Dec 202013
Mar 202111
Jun 20218
Sept 20219
Dec 202111
Mar 202213
Jun 202213
Sept 202213
Dec 202214
Mar 202313
Jun 202315
Sept 202320
Dec 20233
Mar 20248
Jun 20244
Sept 20241
Dec 20241
Mar 20258
Jun 202510
Sept 202520
Dec 202514

Trend

-6Latest quarter change
+7Change across series
47Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation13
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only11
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
24
Homes for Ukraine
218
Afghan programme
85
Resettlement cumulative
26

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine218
Afghan programme85
Resettlement cumulative26

Population context

All pathways total327
Share of local population0.3%

Ethnic composition projection

Watford: White British 45.8% (2021) to 15.4% (2051). 80% CI: 14.7, 17.7%.

Ethnic composition: Watford

017335067% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 10% in 2061White Other 17% in 2061Asian 39% in 2061Black 6% in 2061Mixed 14% in 2061Other 14% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Watford

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
62%
10%
18%
2021
46%
15%
25%
2031proj
34%
17%
30%
2041proj
24%
19%
34%
9%
8%
2051proj
15%
19%
37%
11%
11%
2061proj
10%
17%
39%
14%
14%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Watford ranges from22.8% to 30.3%by 2051. That is a 7.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 25.6% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 13.8% (2021) → 21.1% (2051). Christian 47.4% → 17.6%.

Religion: Watford

416284052%Census 2021Christian 18% in 2051No religion 28% in 2051Muslim 21% in 2051Hindu 29% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

34% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.8). 81% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Watford

2537506375%Census 2021UK-born 30% in 2051Foreign-born 70% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.2% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
white other15.1% internal, 2.2% international
other11.7% internal, 3.1% international
asian9.2% internal, 2.6% international
black10.2% internal, 1.4% international
mixed10.4% internal, 1% international
white british6.9% internal, 0.3% international

Why Watford is changing

-16.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+1.4pp
Local migration
-11.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Watford on UK Demographics →