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East of England

Welwyn Hatfield

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Andrew Lewin
Andrew LewinLabour · Welwyn Hatfield
131 people on asylum support in Welwyn Hatfield

Rank 165 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 10.76 per 10,000 puts Welwyn Hatfield in the 63rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2041. 4 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 101 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 131 people at £107 per person per day is about £5.1M a year.

What asylum costs Welwyn Hatfield

£3.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£335Ksubsistence payments/year
£157KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 131 people on asylum support in Welwyn Hatfield(0.14% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Welwyn Hatfield: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

199
286191950Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20144
Jun 20145
Sept 20145
Dec 20145
Mar 20154
Jun 20154
Sept 20151
Dec 20152
Mar 20162
Jun 20162
Sept 20161
Dec 20161
Mar 20171
Sept 20171
Dec 20175
Mar 201814
Jun 201817
Sept 201819
Dec 201817
Mar 201917
Jun 201917
Sept 201918
Dec 201915
Mar 202016
Jun 202019
Sept 202026
Dec 202026
Mar 202128
Jun 202132
Sept 202132
Dec 202129
Mar 202227
Jun 202232
Sept 202235
Dec 2022261
Mar 2023256
Jun 2023286
Sept 2023283
Dec 2023241
Mar 2024216
Jun 2024176
Sept 2024276
Dec 2024228
Mar 2025214
Jun 2025263
Sept 2025246
Dec 2025199

Trend

-47Latest quarter change
+195Change across series
47Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation26
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only4
Contingency accommodation101

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
131
Homes for Ukraine
276
Afghan programme
11
Resettlement cumulative
18

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine276
Afghan programme11
Resettlement cumulative18

Population context

All pathways total418
Share of local population0.34%

Ethnic composition projection

Welwyn Hatfield: White British 67.2% (2021) to 43.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2041.

Ethnic composition: Welwyn Hatfield

020416182% of populationCensus 2021White British 43% in 2051White Other 16% in 2051Asian 16% in 2051Black 11% in 2051Mixed 7% in 2051Other 6% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Welwyn Hatfield

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
77%
2021
67%
11%
9%
2026proj
63%
13%
10%
2031proj
58%
14%
12%
2036proj
54%
14%
13%
8%
2041proj
50%
15%
14%
9%
2046proj
47%
15%
15%
10%
2051proj
43%
16%
16%
11%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Welwyn Hatfield ranges from37.4% to 49.5%by 2051. That is a 12.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 41.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 3.5% (2021) → 5.4% (2051). Christian 50.6% → 20.0%.

Religion: Welwyn Hatfield

018365471%Census 2021Christian 20% in 2051No religion 66% in 2051Muslim 5% in 2051Hindu 5% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

22% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.62). 89.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Welwyn Hatfield

1734506783%Census 2021UK-born 31% in 2051Foreign-born 69% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.8% moved within UK, 1.9% arrived from abroad
black19% internal, 7.7% international
asian15.9% internal, 7.5% international
other16.7% internal, 3.7% international
white other13.9% internal, 3.7% international
mixed13.5% internal, 1.7% international
white british8.4% internal, 0.3% international

Why Welwyn Hatfield is changing

-9.3pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.3pp
Local migration
-3.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Welwyn Hatfield on UK Demographics →