Trend
-7 Latest quarter change
+468 Change across series
32 Official data points
West Northamptonshire
479 on asylum support. Rank 71 nationally, 5 in East Midlands. Rate: 10.89 per 10,000 (58th percentile). 3 named hotel sites. Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
West Northamptonshire has 479 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 71 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 10.89 per 10,000 residents places it around the 58th percentile. 348 are in contingency accommodation (72.7% of total). 3 named hotel sites are publicly documented. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in West Northamptonshire
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 112
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 19
Contingency accommodation 348
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,172
Afghan programme 168
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,819
Share of local population 0.41%
Hotel evidence
3 named sites publicly documented.
| Site | Status | Evidence | Last public date | Entity coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holiday Inn, Flore | current | named_current | 2025-11-17 | unresolved
Provider: Serco profile |
| ibis Rugby East | current | named_current | 2025-11-17 | unresolved
Provider: Serco profile |
| M K Hotel | current | named_current | 2025-11-17 | unresolved
Provider: Serco profile |
Ethnic composition projection
West Northamptonshire: WBI 75.0% (2021) → 57.9% (2051).
Ethnic composition — West Northamptonshire
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63.7%
Mixed 70.8%
White Other 81.9%
Other 70.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 70%
Mixed 46.5%
White Other 40.3%
Other 40.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.4%
Mixed 31.8%
White Other 34.1%
Other 34.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 67,083 pupils. 61.2% White British. Schools are 13.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 61.2%
White Other 13.5%
Black 8.7%
Asian 8.2%
Mixed 7.4%
Other 1%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
38.8% Minority pupils now
43.3% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
Crime
88.2 crimes per 1,000 residents (64th percentile). Down 1.6% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
88.2 Per 1,000 residents
612 Hate crimes
32.1 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 392 per 10,000 pupils (80th percentile). 5-year growth: +44.2%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
5,842 Total EHCPs
32.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £502 per capita (36th percentile).
£502 Gross spend per capita
358 Residential per 10k 65+
19.1 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
3,242 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 47.5/100.
10.9 Asylum rate /10k
-0.00pp WB annual change
88.2 Crime /1,000
+44.2% SEND 5yr growth
£502 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
479 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
10.89 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
348 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East Midlands by supported asylum.