Trend
-7 Latest quarter change
+468 Change across series
32 Official data points
West Northamptonshire
Lee Barron
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping West Northamptonshire.
436 people housed on asylum support in West Northamptonshire
Rank 73 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 9.91 per 10,000 puts West Northamptonshire in the 60th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2051. 271 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £24M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs West Northamptonshire
£8.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£523KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 436 people on asylum support in West Northamptonshire (0.41% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. 3 known hotel sites in this area. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
West Northamptonshire: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 137
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 28
Contingency accommodation 271
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,199
Afghan programme 180
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,815
Share of local population 0.41%
Ethnic composition projection
West Northamptonshire: WBI 75.0% (2021) → 50.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2051. 80% CI: 45.1–51.4%.
Ethnic composition: West Northamptonshire
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: West Northamptonshire
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in West Northamptonshire ranges from 55.2% to 61.5% by 2051. That is a 6.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 57.9% by 2051
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View West Northamptonshire on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63.7%
Mixed 70.8%
White Other 81.9%
Other 70.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 70%
Mixed 46.5%
White Other 40.3%
Other 40.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.4%
Mixed 31.8%
White Other 34.1%
Other 34.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 67,083 pupils. 61.2% White British. Schools are 13.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 61.2%
White Other 13.5%
Black 8.7%
Asian 8.2%
Mixed 7.4%
Other 1%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
38.8% Minority pupils now
43.3% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
60.3% Primary WBI
62.1% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.73pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 70.1% vs school 61.2% (-8.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
Crime
88.2 crimes per 1,000 residents (64th percentile). Down 1.6% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
88.2 Per 1,000 residents
612 Hate crimes
32.1 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 392 per 10,000 pupils (80th percentile). 5-year growth: +44.2%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
5,842 Total EHCPs
32.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £502 per capita (36th percentile).
£502 Gross spend per capita
358 Residential per 10k 65+
19.1 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
3,242 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 48.0/100.
9.9 Asylum rate /10k
-0.00pp WB annual change
88.2 Crime /1,000
+44.2% SEND 5yr growth
£502 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
436 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
9.91 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
271 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East Midlands by supported asylum.