West Northamptonshire
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping West Northamptonshire.
Rank 63 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 10.76 per 10,000 puts West Northamptonshire in the 63rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2051. 30 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 271 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 478 people at £107 per person per day is about £18.7M a year.
What asylum costs West Northamptonshire
Estimates based on 478 people on asylum support in West Northamptonshire(0.51% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. 3 known hotel sites in this area.
West Northamptonshire: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Exact values
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Mar 2018 | 11 |
| Jun 2018 | 11 |
| Sept 2018 | 12 |
| Dec 2018 | 5 |
| Mar 2019 | 7 |
| Jun 2019 | 7 |
| Sept 2019 | 5 |
| Dec 2019 | 5 |
| Mar 2020 | 6 |
| Jun 2020 | 7 |
| Sept 2020 | 8 |
| Dec 2020 | 8 |
| Mar 2021 | 7 |
| Jun 2021 | 13 |
| Sept 2021 | 13 |
| Dec 2021 | 11 |
| Mar 2022 | 12 |
| Jun 2022 | 14 |
| Sept 2022 | 23 |
| Dec 2022 | 393 |
| Mar 2023 | 433 |
| Jun 2023 | 423 |
| Sept 2023 | 497 |
| Dec 2023 | 50 |
| Mar 2024 | 70 |
| Jun 2024 | 4 |
| Sept 2024 | 8 |
| Dec 2024 | 305 |
| Mar 2025 | 258 |
| Jun 2025 | 455 |
| Sept 2025 | 486 |
| Dec 2025 | 479 |
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Population context
Ethnic composition projection
West Northamptonshire: White British 75.0% (2021) to 50.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2051.
Ethnic composition: West Northamptonshire
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: West Northamptonshire
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in West Northamptonshire ranges from55.2% to 61.5%by 2051. That is a 6.3pp spread.
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
Homeownership rate
Degree+ qualification rate
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 67,083 pupils. 61.2% White British. Schools are 13.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population (schools show the future).
Demographic pipeline
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.73pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Compared with Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 70.1% vs school 61.2% (-8.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
Crime
88.2 crimes per 1,000 residents (64th percentile). Down 1.6% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 392 per 10,000 pupils (80th percentile). 5-year growth: +44.2%.
Primary need types
Key metrics
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £502 per capita (36th percentile).
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 48.4/100.
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
National distribution.
Per 10,000 residents.
Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East Midlands by supported asylum.