asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Winchester

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dr Danny Chambers
Dr Danny ChambersLiberal Democrats · Winchester
67 people on asylum support in Winchester

Rank 212 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 4.9 per 10,000 puts Winchester in the 43rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 4 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 67 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.6M a year.

What asylum costs Winchester

£1.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£171Ksubsistence payments/year
£80KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 67 people on asylum support in Winchester(0.07% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Winchester: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

68
6845230Mar 2019Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Albania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20192
Dec 202247
Mar 202350
Sept 20231
Jun 20248
Sept 202421
Dec 202421
Mar 202540
Jun 202535
Sept 202553
Dec 202568

Trend

+15Latest quarter change
+66Change across series
11Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation63
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only4
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
67
Homes for Ukraine
612
Afghan programme
51
Resettlement cumulative
40

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine612
Afghan programme51
Resettlement cumulative40

Population context

All pathways total730
Share of local population0.53%

Ethnic composition projection

Winchester: White British 88.1% (2021) to 76.2% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Winchester

024487397% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 70% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Asian 4% in 2061Mixed 10% in 2061Other 3% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Winchester

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
92%
2021
88%
2031proj
85%
2041proj
81%
8%
2051proj
76%
10%
2061proj
70%
12%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Winchester ranges from53.7% to 73.3%by 2051. That is a 19.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.8% (2021) → 1.2% (2051). Christian 51.9% → 11.8%.

Religion: Winchester

727476888%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 83% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

11% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.29). 96.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Winchester

628507294%Census 2021UK-born 50% in 2051Foreign-born 50% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 12.7% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
black22.3% internal, 3.5% international
other21.1% internal, 3.7% international
asian15.8% internal, 7.5% international
white other15.6% internal, 4% international
mixed14.8% internal, 2.1% international
white british12.2% internal, 0.6% international

Why Winchester is changing

-3.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.9pp
Local migration
+3.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Winchester on UK Demographics →