asylumstatsFollow the money
West Midlands

Worcester

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dame Harriett Baldwin
Dame Harriett BaldwinConservative · West Worcestershire

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Worcester.

78 people on asylum support in Worcester

Rank 197 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 7.29 per 10,000 puts Worcester in the 54th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 3 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 28 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 78 people at £107 per person per day is about £3.0M a year.

What asylum costs Worcester

£1.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£199Ksubsistence payments/year
£94KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 78 people on asylum support in Worcester(0.08% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Worcester: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

147
150100500Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20144
Jun 20144
Sept 20144
Dec 20144
Mar 20154
Jun 20153
Sept 20153
Dec 20152
Mar 20163
Jun 20162
Sept 20162
Dec 20162
Jun 20171
Sept 20172
Dec 20173
Mar 20182
Jun 20181
Sept 20181
Dec 20211
Mar 20221
Jun 20222
Sept 20227
Dec 2022117
Mar 2023126
Jun 2023114
Sept 2023124
Dec 2023111
Mar 202490
Jun 202444
Sept 2024125
Dec 2024131
Mar 2025116
Jun 2025147
Sept 2025150
Dec 2025147

Trend

-3Latest quarter change
+143Change across series
35Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation47
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only3
Contingency accommodation28

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
78
Homes for Ukraine
327
Afghan programme
82
Resettlement cumulative
28

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine327
Afghan programme82
Resettlement cumulative28

Population context

All pathways total487
Share of local population0.46%

Ethnic composition projection

Worcester: White British 82.7% (2021) to 60.2% (2051). 80% CI: 59.1, 65.1%.

Ethnic composition: Worcester

024477194% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 51% in 2061White Other 15% in 2061Asian 14% in 2061Black 4% in 2061Mixed 9% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Worcester

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
89%
2021
83%
2031proj
77%
9%
2041proj
69%
12%
9%
2051proj
60%
14%
11%
2061proj
51%
15%
14%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Worcester ranges from46.3% to 64.9%by 2051. That is a 18.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 52.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 4.3% (2021) → 6.3% (2051). Christian 52.0% → 12.2%.

Religion: Worcester

021426385%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 80% in 2051Muslim 6% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

12.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.39). 92.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Worcester

829507192%Census 2021UK-born 46% in 2051Foreign-born 54% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.3% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
black18.5% internal, 9.6% international
other14.9% internal, 5.2% international
mixed15.6% internal, 2.1% international
white other14.2% internal, 3.3% international
asian8.8% internal, 4.7% international
white british9.7% internal, 0.2% international

Why Worcester is changing

-6.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.7pp
Local migration
+0.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Worcester on UK Demographics →