Trend
-195 Latest quarter change
+1,295 Change across series
48 Official data points
Barnet
1,393 on asylum support. Rank 15 nationally, 4 in London. Rate: 34.39 per 10,000 (90th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Barnet has 1,393 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 15 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 34.39 per 10,000 residents places it around the 90th percentile. 1,251 are in contingency accommodation (89.8% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Barnet
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 36
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 106
Contingency accommodation 1,251
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,912
Afghan programme 201
Resettlement cumulative 59
Population context
All pathways total 3,506
Share of local population 0.87%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Barnet: WBI 36.2% (2021) → 9.3% (2051). 80% CI: 7.8–10%.
Ethnic composition — Barnet
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 13.3% (2021) → 19.1% (2051). Christian 39.7% → 23.8%.
Religion — Barnet
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
43.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.89). 77.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Barnet
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Barnet is changing
-9.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.8%
Mixed 65.9%
White Other 73.8%
Other 60.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.6%
Mixed 38.4%
White Other 43.3%
Other 43.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 48.9%
Mixed 48.1%
White Other 49.7%
Other 48.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 60,157 pupils. 26.2% White British. Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 26.2%
White Other 22.8%
Asian 16.1%
Other 12.4%
Mixed 12.2%
Black 10.2%
What this means
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
73.8% Minority pupils now
85.2% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,393 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
34.39 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
1,251 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in London by supported asylum.