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Bexley

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Daniel Francis
Daniel FrancisLabour · Bexleyheath and Crayford

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bexley.

115 people on asylum support in Bexley

Rank 171 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 4.47 per 10,000 puts Bexley in the 41st percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2033. 6 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 115 people at £107 per person per day is about £4.5M a year.

What asylum costs Bexley

£2.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£294Ksubsistence payments/year
£138KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 115 people on asylum support in Bexley(0.12% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Bexley: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

103
14798490Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2021Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201428
Jun 201433
Sept 201432
Dec 201430
Mar 201520
Jun 201523
Sept 201530
Dec 201530
Mar 201629
Jun 201639
Sept 201621
Dec 201617
Mar 201723
Jun 201736
Sept 201739
Dec 201737
Mar 201851
Jun 201855
Sept 201851
Dec 201843
Mar 201957
Jun 201968
Sept 201975
Dec 201990
Mar 202091
Jun 202093
Sept 2020101
Dec 2020118
Mar 2021125
Jun 2021147
Sept 2021139
Dec 2021137
Mar 2022133
Jun 2022131
Sept 2022131
Dec 2022118
Mar 2023117
Jun 2023143
Sept 2023133
Dec 2023101
Mar 2024103
Jun 2024103
Sept 2024103
Dec 202496
Mar 202584
Jun 2025112
Sept 202599
Dec 2025103

Trend

+4Latest quarter change
+75Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation109
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only6
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
115
Homes for Ukraine
801
Afghan programme
1
Resettlement cumulative
0

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine801
Afghan programme1
Resettlement cumulative0

Population context

All pathways total917
Share of local population0.36%

Ethnic composition projection

Bexley: White British 64.5% (2021) to 28.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2033. 80% CI: 27.5, 32%.

Ethnic composition: Bexley

021416282% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 19% in 2061White Other 11% in 2061Asian 17% in 2061Black 27% in 2061Mixed 15% in 2061Other 11% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Bexley

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
77%
10%
2021
64%
10%
12%
2031proj
53%
9%
13%
16%
2041proj
40%
11%
15%
20%
2051proj
28%
12%
16%
24%
11%
8%
2061proj
19%
11%
17%
27%
15%
11%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Bexley ranges from41.6% to 49.0%by 2051. That is a 7.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 44.6% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 4.2% (2021) → 10.2% (2051). Christian 53.3% → 16.2%.

Religion: Bexley

015304560%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 55% in 2051Muslim 10% in 2051Hindu 14% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

21% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.65). 90.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Bexley

1633506784%Census 2021UK-born 45% in 2051Foreign-born 55% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.2% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
white other11.3% internal, 1.6% international
asian9.3% internal, 1.3% international
mixed9.9% internal, 0.7% international
other8.2% internal, 1.9% international
black8.7% internal, 1.2% international
white british5.9% internal, 0.2% international

Why Bexley is changing

-12.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.2pp
Local migration
-6.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Bexley on UK Demographics →