Trend
-26 Latest quarter change
+489 Change across series
48 Official data points
Blackburn with Darwen
759 on asylum support. Rank 35 nationally, 8 in North West. Rate: 46.7 per 10,000 (98th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Blackburn with Darwen has 759 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 35 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 46.7 per 10,000 residents places it around the 98th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Blackburn with Darwen
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 752
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 7
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 127
Afghan programme 70
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 956
Share of local population 0.59%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Blackburn with Darwen: WBI 56.9% (2021) → 25.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2027. 80% CI: 21.1–25.1%.
Ethnic composition — Blackburn with Darwen
White British White Other Asian Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 36.8% (2021) → 45.5% (2051). Christian 40.0% → 8.6%.
Religion — Blackburn with Darwen
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
18.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.55). 87.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Blackburn with Darwen
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Why Blackburn with Darwen is changing
-9.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.5%
Mixed 63.3%
White Other 69.6%
Other 52.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 62.7%
Mixed 37.9%
White Other 33.5%
Other 33.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.8%
Mixed 34%
White Other 24.8%
Other 31.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 27,931 pupils. 39.5% White British. Schools are 17.4pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 48.4%
White British 39.5%
Mixed 4%
White Other 3.6%
Other 2.3%
Black 2.2%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
60.5% Minority pupils now
68.5% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
Crime
98.2 crimes per 1,000 residents (76th percentile). Down 2.1% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
98.2 Per 1,000 residents
312 Hate crimes
35.1 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 412 per 10,000 pupils (68th percentile). 5-year growth: +42.1%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
2,841 Total EHCPs
31.2% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £612 per capita (88th percentile).
£612 Gross spend per capita
418 Residential per 10k 65+
18.7 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
1,842 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 85.1/100.
High pressure
46.7 Asylum rate /10k
-0.97pp WB annual change
98.2 Crime /1,000
+42.1% SEND 5yr growth
£612 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
759 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
46.7 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.