Trend
-99 Latest quarter change
+573 Change across series
40 Official data points
Blackpool
577 on asylum support. Rank 59 nationally, 14 in North West. Rate: 40.02 per 10,000 (94th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Blackpool has 577 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 59 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 40.02 per 10,000 residents places it around the 94th percentile. 346 are in contingency accommodation (60% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Blackpool
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 228
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 346
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 148
Afghan programme 59
Resettlement cumulative 84
Population context
All pathways total 784
Share of local population 0.54%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Blackpool: WBI 90.4% (2021) → 71.6% (2051). 80% CI: 66.8–72.4%.
Ethnic composition — Blackpool
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.5% (2021) → 4.3% (2051). Christian 53.7% → 9.7%.
Religion — Blackpool
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
7.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 95.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Blackpool
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Blackpool is changing
-3.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.6%
Mixed 60.9%
White Other 68.8%
Other 62.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 58.9%
Mixed 39.7%
White Other 39.4%
Other 36.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 22.1%
Mixed 27.8%
White Other 28.2%
Other 28.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 19,547 pupils. 82.1% White British. Schools are 8.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 82.1%
Asian 5.6%
White Other 5.4%
Mixed 4.1%
Black 1.7%
Other 1.2%
What this means
Schools are 8pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
17.9% Minority pupils now
28.2% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
142.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (96th percentile). Down 3.4% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
142.8 Per 1,000 residents
289 Hate crimes
52.3 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 478 per 10,000 pupils (96th percentile). 5-year growth: +51.2%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
2,124 Total EHCPs
28.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £724 per capita (96th percentile).
£724 Gross spend per capita
482 Residential per 10k 65+
17.8 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
2,124 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 89.9/100.
High pressure
40.0 Asylum rate /10k
-0.33pp WB annual change
142.8 Crime /1,000
+51.2% SEND 5yr growth
£724 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
577 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
40.02 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
346 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.