Trend
+7 Latest quarter change
+331 Change across series
48 Official data points
Bolton
1,067 on asylum support. Rank 26 nationally, 4 in North West. Rate: 34.41 per 10,000 (90th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Bolton has 1,067 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 26 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 34.41 per 10,000 residents places it around the 90th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Bolton
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,036
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 31
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 233
Afghan programme 150
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,450
Share of local population 0.47%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Bolton: WBI 68.8% (2021) → 18.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2033. 80% CI: 21.4–25.7%.
Ethnic composition — Bolton
White British White Other Asian Black Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 20.9% (2021) → 47.4% (2051). Christian 49.3% → 9.5%.
Religion — Bolton
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
16.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 89.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Bolton
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Why Bolton is changing
-10.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.7%
Mixed 63.5%
White Other 65.4%
Other 49.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 63.5%
Mixed 42.5%
White Other 40.3%
Other 25.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 27.1%
Mixed 33.6%
White Other 31%
Other 30%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 53,832 pupils. 51.2% White British. Schools are 17.5pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 51.2%
Asian 28.8%
Black 8.6%
Mixed 5.3%
White Other 3.4%
Other 2.7%
What this means
Schools are 18pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
48.8% Minority pupils now
67.8% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,067 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
34.41 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North West by supported asylum.