Trend
-87 Latest quarter change
+1,158 Change across series
48 Official data points
Bradford
1,368 on asylum support. Rank 16 nationally, 2 in Yorkshire and The Humber. Rate: 24.27 per 10,000 (83rd percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
Summary
Bradford has 1,368 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 16 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 24.27 per 10,000 residents places it around the 83rd percentile. 255 are in contingency accommodation (18.6% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Bradford
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,083
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 30
Contingency accommodation 255
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 624
Afghan programme 482
Resettlement cumulative 827
Population context
All pathways total 2,474
Share of local population 0.44%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Bradford: WBI 56.7% (2021) → 32.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2029. 80% CI: 26.6–31.3%.
Ethnic composition — Bradford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 32.3% (2021) → 39.9% (2051). Christian 35.3% → 8.9%.
Religion — Bradford
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
18.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.6). 87.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Bradford
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Why Bradford is changing
-7.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.3%
Mixed 62.2%
White Other 66.8%
Other 48.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 64.8%
Mixed 37.6%
White Other 33.4%
Other 33.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 27.2%
Mixed 28.5%
White Other 30.5%
Other 29.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 98,006 pupils. 38% White British. Schools are 18.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 43.9%
White British 38%
Mixed 6.8%
White Other 5.5%
Black 3.7%
Other 2.1%
What this means
Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
62% Minority pupils now
63.9% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,368 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
24.27 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
255 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.