Trend
-2 Latest quarter change
+458 Change across series
47 Official data points
Burnley
461 on asylum support. Rank 75 nationally, 18 in North West. Rate: 46.46 per 10,000 (97th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Burnley has 461 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 75 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 46.46 per 10,000 residents places it around the 97th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Burnley
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 458
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 100
Afghan programme 31
Resettlement cumulative 98
Population context
All pathways total 592
Share of local population 0.6%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Burnley: WBI 77.9% (2021) → 40.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2045. 80% CI: 41.9–48.1%.
Ethnic composition — Burnley
White British White Other Asian 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 14.8% (2021) → 21.0% (2051). Christian 50.9% → 10.9%.
Religion — Burnley
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
12.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.42). 91% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Burnley
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Burnley is changing
-7.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 55.7%
Mixed 61.7%
White Other 76.6%
Other 58%
Homeownership rate
White British 61.9%
Mixed 33.9%
White Other 30.9%
Other 32.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.4%
Mixed 25%
White Other 23.5%
Other 23.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
112.4 crimes per 1,000 residents (88th percentile). Down 1.8% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
112.4 Per 1,000 residents
187 Hate crimes
41.2 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 398 per 10,000 pupils (40th percentile). 5-year growth: +38.7%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,247 Total EHCPs
29.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £578 per capita (76th percentile).
£578 Gross spend per capita
398 Residential per 10k 65+
18.4 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
842 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 77.8/100.
High pressure
46.5 Asylum rate /10k
-0.76pp WB annual change
112.4 Crime /1,000
+38.7% SEND 5yr growth
£578 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
461 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
46.46 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.