Trend
+13 Latest quarter change
+107 Change across series
48 Official data points
Bury
404 on asylum support. Rank 89 nationally, 26 in North West. Rate: 20.31 per 10,000 (76th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Bury has 404 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 89 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 20.31 per 10,000 residents places it around the 76th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Bury
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 392
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 12
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 277
Afghan programme 57
Resettlement cumulative 13
Population context
All pathways total 738
Share of local population 0.37%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Bury: WBI 78.2% (2021) → 39.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2044. 80% CI: 38.4–44.5%.
Ethnic composition — Bury
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 10.4% (2021) → 22.4% (2051). Christian 51.4% → 12.0%.
Religion — Bury
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
12.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.46). 93.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Bury
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Bury is changing
-7.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.8%
Mixed 67.8%
White Other 68.4%
Other 59%
Homeownership rate
White British 68.5%
Mixed 47.8%
White Other 56.5%
Other 50.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.6%
Mixed 39.8%
White Other 40.4%
Other 41.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 28,856 pupils. 65.1% White British. Schools are 13.1pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 65.1%
Asian 18.2%
Mixed 6.2%
Black 4.6%
White Other 3.8%
Other 2.1%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
34.9% Minority pupils now
50.7% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
404 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
20.31 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.