Trend
+1 Latest quarter change
+657 Change across series
43 Official data points
Cheshire West and Chester
658 on asylum support. Rank 51 nationally, 12 in North West. Rate: 17.7 per 10,000 (73rd percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Cheshire West and Chester has 658 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 51 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 17.7 per 10,000 residents places it around the 73rd percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Cheshire West and Chester
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 656
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 834
Afghan programme 148
Resettlement cumulative 102
Population context
All pathways total 1,640
Share of local population 0.44%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Cheshire West and Chester: WBI 91.2% (2021) → 71.5% (2051). 80% CI: 70.2–75.6%.
Ethnic composition — Cheshire West and Chester
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.0% (2021) → 3.0% (2051). Christian 57.7% → 11.2%.
Religion — Cheshire West and Chester
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
7.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.23). 96.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Cheshire West and Chester
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Cheshire West and Chester is changing
-3.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.2%
Mixed 69.5%
White Other 74.1%
Other 65.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 70.7%
Mixed 53.3%
White Other 49.8%
Other 42.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 35.1%
Mixed 40.9%
White Other 46.6%
Other 43.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 50,649 pupils. 85.4% White British. Schools are 5.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 85.4%
White Other 4.7%
Mixed 3.8%
Asian 3.7%
Black 1.6%
Other 0.8%
What this means
Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
14.6% Minority pupils now
27.7% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
658 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.7 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.