Trend
+2 Latest quarter change
+226 Change across series
39 Official data points
Chorley
229 on asylum support. Rank 132 nationally, 33 in North West. Rate: 18.95 per 10,000 (75th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Chorley has 229 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 132 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 18.95 per 10,000 residents places it around the 75th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Chorley
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 225
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 179
Afghan programme 11
Resettlement cumulative 107
Population context
All pathways total 419
Share of local population 0.35%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Chorley: WBI 93.0% (2021) → 86.2% (2051). 80% CI: 78–81.9%.
Ethnic composition — Chorley
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.5% (2021) → 1.5% (2051). Christian 64.8% → 15.2%.
Religion — Chorley
Christian No religion
Nativity
5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 97.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Chorley
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Chorley is changing
-2.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.4%
Mixed 67.8%
White Other 72.5%
Other 60.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 73.7%
Mixed 51.6%
White Other 52.1%
Other 50.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 33.6%
Mixed 37.5%
White Other 39.8%
Other 42.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
62.1 crimes per 1,000 residents (20th percentile). Up 1.2% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
62.1 Per 1,000 residents
67 Hate crimes
22.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 342 per 10,000 pupils (24th percentile). 5-year growth: +35.2%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,412 Total EHCPs
33.1% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £482 per capita (20th percentile).
£482 Gross spend per capita
342 Residential per 10k 65+
19.4 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
624 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 38.1/100.
18.9 Asylum rate /10k
-0.21pp WB annual change
62.1 Crime /1,000
+35.2% SEND 5yr growth
£482 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
229 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
18.95 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.