Trend
+7 Latest quarter change
+268 Change across series
11 Official data points
Cumberland
518 people housed on asylum support in Cumberland
Rank 57 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 18.47 per 10,000 puts Cumberland in the 78th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £28M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Cumberland
£10.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.3Msubsistence payments/year
£622KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 518 people on asylum support in Cumberland (0.48% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Cumberland: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 515
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 544
Afghan programme 177
Resettlement cumulative 18
Population context
All pathways total 1,239
Share of local population 0.44%
Ethnic composition projection
Cumberland: WBI 95.1% (2021) → 79.3% (2051).
Ethnic composition: Cumberland
White British White Other Asian
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Cumberland
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Cumberland ranges from 72.0% to 86.6% by 2051. That is a 14.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 77.7% by 2051
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Cumberland on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58%
Mixed 69.7%
White Other 73.7%
Other 63%
Homeownership rate
White British 70%
Mixed 50.6%
White Other 43.8%
Other 36.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 27.1%
Mixed 38.8%
White Other 40.4%
Other 38.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 38,805 pupils. 90.5% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 90.5%
White Other 3.3%
Mixed 2.1%
Black 1.8%
Asian 1.7%
Other 0.6%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
9.5% Minority pupils now
20.6% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
89.8% Primary WBI
91.2% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
518 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
18.47 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.