Trend
-7 Latest quarter change
+454 Change across series
48 Official data points
Doncaster
658 on asylum support. Rank 52 nationally, 7 in Yorkshire and The Humber. Rate: 20.58 per 10,000 (77th percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
Summary
Doncaster has 658 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 52 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 20.58 per 10,000 residents places it around the 77th percentile. 147 are in contingency accommodation (22.3% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Doncaster
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 503
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 8
Contingency accommodation 147
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 360
Afghan programme 275
Resettlement cumulative 23
Population context
All pathways total 1,293
Share of local population 0.4%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Doncaster: WBI 86.6% (2021) → 47.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2049. 80% CI: 44.5–51.2%.
Ethnic composition — Doncaster
White British White Other Asian Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 2.4% (2021) → 2.7% (2051). Christian 53.8% → 11.2%.
Religion — Doncaster
Christian No religion
Nativity
10.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.32). 92.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Doncaster
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Doncaster is changing
-5.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.8%
Mixed 63.5%
White Other 78.7%
Other 53.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 65.8%
Mixed 49.6%
White Other 32.7%
Other 28.7%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 22.4%
Mixed 28.4%
White Other 26.4%
Other 22.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 47,978 pupils. 76.4% White British. Schools are 10.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 76.4%
White Other 9%
Asian 5%
Black 4.1%
Mixed 4.1%
Other 1.5%
What this means
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
23.6% Minority pupils now
42.4% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
Crime
108.7 crimes per 1,000 residents (84th percentile). Down 2.8% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
108.7 Per 1,000 residents
423 Hate crimes
39.4 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 424 per 10,000 pupils (84th percentile). 5-year growth: +44.8%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
4,218 Total EHCPs
30.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £598 per capita (84th percentile).
£598 Gross spend per capita
412 Residential per 10k 65+
18.2 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
2,418 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 81.7/100.
High pressure
20.6 Asylum rate /10k
-0.52pp WB annual change
108.7 Crime /1,000
+44.8% SEND 5yr growth
£598 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
658 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
20.58 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
147 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.