Trend
+3Latest quarter change
+49Change across series
25Official data points
East Riding of Yorkshire
Seamus Logan
67 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping East Riding of Yorkshire.
55 people on asylum support in East Riding of Yorkshire
Rank 228 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 1.53 per 10,000 puts East Riding of Yorkshire in the 22nd percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 5 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 55 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.1M a year.
What asylum costs East Riding of Yorkshire
£1.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£141Ksubsistence payments/year
£66KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 55 people on asylum support in East Riding of Yorkshire(0.06% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.
East Riding of Yorkshire: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Exact values
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Mar 2014 | 4 |
| Jun 2014 | 4 |
| Sept 2014 | 4 |
| Dec 2017 | 2 |
| Mar 2018 | 2 |
| Jun 2018 | 3 |
| Sept 2018 | 3 |
| Dec 2018 | 1 |
| Dec 2019 | 1 |
| Mar 2020 | 1 |
| Jun 2022 | 2 |
| Sept 2022 | 12 |
| Dec 2022 | 18 |
| Mar 2023 | 269 |
| Jun 2023 | 84 |
| Sept 2023 | 163 |
| Dec 2023 | 52 |
| Mar 2024 | 65 |
| Jun 2024 | 32 |
| Sept 2024 | 47 |
| Dec 2024 | 60 |
| Mar 2025 | 57 |
| Jun 2025 | 60 |
| Sept 2025 | 50 |
| Dec 2025 | 53 |
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation50
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only5
Contingency accommodation0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine637
Afghan programme75
Resettlement cumulative192
Population context
All pathways total767
Share of local population0.21%
Ethnic composition projection
East Riding of Yorkshire: White British 94.6% (2021) to 87.8% (2051). 80% CI: 87.7, 89.9%.
Ethnic composition: East Riding of Yorkshire
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: East Riding of Yorkshire
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in East Riding of Yorkshire ranges from73.5% to 86.3%by 2051. That is a 12.9pp spread.
Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 78.7% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.6% (2021) → 0.8% (2051). Christian 56.7% → 12.1%.
Religion: East Riding of Yorkshire
ChristianNo religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.16). 97.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: East Riding of Yorkshire
UK-bornForeign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.4% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black19.8% internal, 4.6% international
other15% internal, 6% international
asian13.9% internal, 2.1% international
white other11.8% internal, 3.3% international
mixed12.8% internal, 1.4% international
white british8.1% internal, 0.2% international
Why East Riding of Yorkshire is changing
-1.5ppWhite British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View East Riding of Yorkshire on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British55.9%
Mixed66.1%
White Other73.2%
Other65.7%
Homeownership rate
White British74.3%
Mixed61.2%
White Other49.8%
Other49.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British30.1%
Mixed39.5%
White Other39.6%
Other42.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 44,219 pupils. 90.3% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British90.3%
White Other4.5%
Mixed2.9%
Asian1%
Other0.8%
Black0.6%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
9.7%Minority pupils now
18.6%Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
90.4%Primary WBI
90.1%Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.28pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Compared with Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 92.5% vs school 90.3% (-2.2pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
118.4 crimes per 1,000 residents (92th percentile). Down 2.9% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
118.4Per 1,000 residents
234Hate crimes
43.2Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 432 per 10,000 pupils (92th percentile). 5-year growth: +46.8%.
Academic year 2023/24Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
2,418Total EHCPs
29.2%ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £624 per capita (92th percentile).
£624Gross spend per capita
428Residential per 10k 65+
18.0Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
1,842Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 68.4/100.
1.5Asylum rate /10k
-0.15ppWB annual change
118.4Crime /1,000
+46.8%SEND 5yr growth
£624ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
55National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
1.53Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.