Trend
+8 Latest quarter change
+304 Change across series
48 Official data points
Harrow
356 on asylum support. Rank 103 nationally, 15 in London. Rate: 13.15 per 10,000 (63rd percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Harrow has 356 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 103 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 13.15 per 10,000 residents places it around the 63rd percentile. 78 are in contingency accommodation (21.9% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Harrow
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 224
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 54
Contingency accommodation 78
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 601
Afghan programme 198
Resettlement cumulative 8
Population context
All pathways total 1,155
Share of local population 0.43%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Harrow: WBI 20.5% (2021) → 1.8% (2051). 80% CI: 2–2.5%.
Ethnic composition — Harrow
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 16.9% (2021) → 30.4% (2051). Christian 36.0% → 23.7%.
Religion — Harrow
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
51.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.82). 69.3% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Harrow
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Harrow is changing
-10.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.9%
Mixed 65.9%
White Other 75%
Other 55.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 66.8%
Mixed 46%
White Other 36.4%
Other 40.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 47.4%
Mixed 41.9%
White Other 36.5%
Other 40.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 38,277 pupils. 7.3% White British. Schools are 13.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 52.8%
White Other 17.6%
Mixed 8.5%
Black 7.8%
White British 7.3%
Other 6%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
92.7% Minority pupils now
95.7% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
356 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
13.15 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
78 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.