Trend
-212 Latest quarter change
+1,988 Change across series
48 Official data points
Hillingdon
2,133 on asylum support. Rank 4 nationally, 1 in London. Rate: 64.8 per 10,000 (100th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Hillingdon has 2,133 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 4 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 64.8 per 10,000 residents places it around the 100th percentile. 1,896 are in contingency accommodation (88.9% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Hillingdon
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 158
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 79
Contingency accommodation 1,896
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 726
Afghan programme 157
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 3,016
Share of local population 0.92%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Hillingdon: WBI 37.1% (2021) → 5.5% (2051). 80% CI: 5.4–6.8%.
Ethnic composition — Hillingdon
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 15.3% (2021) → 27.2% (2051). Christian 41.4% → 14.7%.
Religion — Hillingdon
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Nativity
38.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.82). 77.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Hillingdon
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Hillingdon is changing
-15.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.4%
Mixed 66%
White Other 74.5%
Other 60%
Homeownership rate
White British 61.6%
Mixed 43.4%
White Other 42%
Other 45.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 36.8%
Mixed 36.2%
White Other 41.5%
Other 39.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 51,811 pupils. 22.5% White British. Schools are 14.6pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 33.4%
White British 22.5%
Mixed 14.4%
White Other 10.5%
Black 9.7%
Other 9.6%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
77.5% Minority pupils now
89.2% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
2,133 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
64.8 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
1,896 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in London by supported asylum.