Trend
-26 Latest quarter change
+412 Change across series
48 Official data points
Hyndburn
415 on asylum support. Rank 85 nationally, 23 in North West. Rate: 48.22 per 10,000 (99th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Hyndburn has 415 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 85 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 48.22 per 10,000 residents places it around the 99th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Hyndburn
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 413
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 103
Afghan programme 61
Resettlement cumulative 86
Population context
All pathways total 579
Share of local population 0.67%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Hyndburn: WBI 79.6% (2021) → 56.6% (2051). White British minority by ~2058. 80% CI: 46.8–53.2%.
Ethnic composition — Hyndburn
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 15.4% (2021) → 21.0% (2051). Christian 53.8% → 11.6%.
Religion — Hyndburn
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.38). 94% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Hyndburn
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Hyndburn is changing
-5.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.2%
Mixed 66.1%
White Other 70.4%
Other 53.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 64.2%
Mixed 42.5%
White Other 45.6%
Other 36.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 25.1%
Mixed 28.8%
White Other 26.4%
Other 25%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
104.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (80th percentile). Down 2.4% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
104.8 Per 1,000 residents
142 Hate crimes
38.2 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 408 per 10,000 pupils (56th percentile). 5-year growth: +40.4%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,124 Total EHCPs
28.2% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £592 per capita (80th percentile).
£592 Gross spend per capita
408 Residential per 10k 65+
18.1 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
724 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 79.7/100.
High pressure
48.2 Asylum rate /10k
-0.57pp WB annual change
104.8 Crime /1,000
+40.4% SEND 5yr growth
£592 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
415 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
48.22 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.