Trend
-33 Latest quarter change
+246 Change across series
48 Official data points
Kensington and Chelsea
258 on asylum support. Rank 121 nationally, 18 in London. Rate: 17.85 per 10,000 (74th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Kensington and Chelsea has 258 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 121 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 17.85 per 10,000 residents places it around the 74th percentile. 254 are in contingency accommodation (98.4% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Kensington and Chelsea
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 254
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,007
Afghan programme 22
Resettlement cumulative 5
Population context
All pathways total 1,287
Share of local population 0.89%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Kensington and Chelsea: WBI 32.7% (2021) → 15.3% (2051). 80% CI: 9.6–13.1%.
Ethnic composition — Kensington and Chelsea
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 13.1% (2021) → 18.5% (2051). Christian 53.7% → 32.9%.
Religion — Kensington and Chelsea
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
53.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.88). 76.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Kensington and Chelsea
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Kensington and Chelsea is changing
-6.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.6%
Mixed 64.2%
White Other 67.3%
Other 51.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 37.2%
Mixed 19.7%
White Other 30.6%
Other 20.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 56.2%
Mixed 53%
White Other 69.2%
Other 49.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 12,477 pupils. 19% White British. Schools are 13.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White Other 21%
Mixed 20%
White British 19%
Black 18.1%
Other 16%
Asian 5.8%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
81% Minority pupils now
82.6% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
258 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.85 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
254 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.