Trend
+6 Latest quarter change
+237 Change across series
41 Official data points
Lancaster
245 on asylum support. Rank 126 nationally, 30 in North West. Rate: 16.9 per 10,000 (73rd percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Lancaster has 245 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 126 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 16.9 per 10,000 residents places it around the 73rd percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Lancaster
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 243
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 293
Afghan programme 29
Resettlement cumulative 93
Population context
All pathways total 567
Share of local population 0.39%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Lancaster: WBI 87.8% (2021) → 75.7% (2051). 80% CI: 63–69.9%.
Ethnic composition — Lancaster
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 3.3% (2051). Christian 55.5% → 14.2%.
Religion — Lancaster
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
9.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.3). 94.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Lancaster
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Lancaster is changing
-3.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.5%
Mixed 51%
White Other 64.3%
Other 50.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 69.5%
Mixed 47.1%
White Other 45.8%
Other 32.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.8%
Mixed 35.2%
White Other 38.8%
Other 45.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
74.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (44th percentile). Down 0.7% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
74.8 Per 1,000 residents
124 Hate crimes
27.1 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 356 per 10,000 pupils (28th percentile). 5-year growth: +36.8%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,842 Total EHCPs
32.1% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £518 per capita (52th percentile).
£518 Gross spend per capita
372 Residential per 10k 65+
19.1 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
1,242 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 53.6/100.
16.9 Asylum rate /10k
-0.37pp WB annual change
74.8 Crime /1,000
+36.8% SEND 5yr growth
£518 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
245 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
16.9 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.