Trend
-262 Latest quarter change
+1,070 Change across series
48 Official data points
Manchester
1,846 on asylum support. Rank 5 nationally, 2 in North West. Rate: 31.31 per 10,000 (88th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Manchester has 1,846 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 5 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 31.31 per 10,000 residents places it around the 88th percentile. 979 are in contingency accommodation (53% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Manchester
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 763
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 104
Contingency accommodation 979
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,033
Afghan programme 417
Resettlement cumulative 13
Population context
All pathways total 3,296
Share of local population 0.56%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Manchester: WBI 48.7% (2021) → 16.4% (2051). 80% CI: 13.2–19.2%.
Ethnic composition — Manchester
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 23.7% (2021) → 42.0% (2051). Christian 38.5% → 10.0%.
Religion — Manchester
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
31.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.78). 81.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Manchester
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Manchester is changing
-10.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.6%
Mixed 61%
White Other 69.4%
Other 48.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 40.3%
Mixed 23.6%
White Other 32.5%
Other 19%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 36.5%
Mixed 37.5%
White Other 46.4%
Other 41%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 91,885 pupils. 29.8% White British. Schools are 18.9pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 29.8%
Asian 27.9%
Black 18.2%
Mixed 10%
Other 8.8%
White Other 5.4%
What this means
Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
70.2% Minority pupils now
76.7% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,846 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
31.31 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
979 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North West by supported asylum.