Trend
-23 Latest quarter change
+239 Change across series
48 Official data points
Merton
302 on asylum support. Rank 112 nationally, 16 in London. Rate: 13.82 per 10,000 (66th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Merton has 302 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 112 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 13.82 per 10,000 residents places it around the 66th percentile. 196 are in contingency accommodation (64.9% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Merton
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 81
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 25
Contingency accommodation 196
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,530
Afghan programme 17
Resettlement cumulative 18
Population context
All pathways total 1,849
Share of local population 0.85%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Merton: WBI 41.2% (2021) → 8.6% (2051). 80% CI: 10.4–13.4%.
Ethnic composition — Merton
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 10.8% (2021) → 15.3% (2051). Christian 50.6% → 22.4%.
Religion — Merton
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
40.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.85). 78.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Merton
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Merton is changing
-7.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65.6%
Mixed 71.1%
White Other 80.2%
Other 66.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 61.5%
Mixed 46.4%
White Other 43.2%
Other 44.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 49.5%
Mixed 47.1%
White Other 53.5%
Other 44.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 27,217 pupils. 28.5% White British. Schools are 12.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 28.5%
Asian 22.1%
White Other 19.5%
Mixed 13.6%
Black 12.7%
Other 3.6%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
71.5% Minority pupils now
83.4% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
302 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
13.82 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
196 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.