Trend
+35 Latest quarter change
+276 Change across series
41 Official data points
North East Lincolnshire
277 on asylum support. Rank 117 nationally, 12 in Yorkshire and The Humber. Rate: 17.32 per 10,000 (73rd percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
2025-12-31 Yorkshire and The Humber region
Summary
North East Lincolnshire has 277 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 117 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 17.32 per 10,000 residents places it around the 73rd percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in North East Lincolnshire
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 273
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 145
Afghan programme 45
Resettlement cumulative 53
Population context
All pathways total 467
Share of local population 0.29%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
North East Lincolnshire: WBI 92.6% (2021) → 72.8% (2051). 80% CI: 60.9–67.4%.
Ethnic composition — North East Lincolnshire
White British White Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.3% (2021) → 2.0% (2051). Christian 48.1% → 9.8%.
Religion — North East Lincolnshire
Christian No religion
Nativity
6.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 96.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — North East Lincolnshire
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why North East Lincolnshire is changing
-2.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.4%
Mixed 64.1%
White Other 78.5%
Other 61.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 65.6%
Mixed 46.6%
White Other 35.9%
Other 37.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 21.3%
Mixed 30.2%
White Other 25.7%
Other 33.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 23,001 pupils. 86.4% White British. Schools are 6.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 86.4%
White Other 5%
Mixed 3.1%
Black 2.5%
Asian 1.6%
Other 1.4%
What this means
Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
13.6% Minority pupils now
25.8% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
277 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.32 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.