asylumstatsFollow the money
Yorkshire and The Humber

North Lincolnshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Kirsty Blackman
Kirsty BlackmanSNP · Aberdeen North

81 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping North Lincolnshire.

87 people on asylum support in North Lincolnshire

Rank 185 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 5.08 per 10,000 puts North Lincolnshire in the 44th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 9 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 87 people at £107 per person per day is about £3.4M a year.

What asylum costs North Lincolnshire

£2.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£222Ksubsistence payments/year
£104KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 87 people on asylum support in North Lincolnshire(0.09% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

North Lincolnshire: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

80
8053270Jun 2016Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20161
Sept 20161
Dec 20161
Mar 20191
Jun 20191
Sept 20191
Dec 20191
Mar 20201
Jun 20203
Sept 20203
Dec 20203
Mar 20213
Jun 20212
Sept 20212
Dec 20212
Mar 20222
Jun 20223
Sept 20223
Dec 20223
Mar 20233
Jun 20233
Sept 20237
Dec 202315
Mar 202415
Jun 202430
Sept 202441
Dec 202450
Mar 202563
Jun 202558
Sept 202571
Dec 202580

Trend

+9Latest quarter change
+79Change across series
31Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation78
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only9
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
87
Homes for Ukraine
342
Afghan programme
61
Resettlement cumulative
85

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine342
Afghan programme61
Resettlement cumulative85

Population context

All pathways total490
Share of local population0.29%

Ethnic composition projection

North Lincolnshire: White British 88.7% (2021) to 70.6% (2051). 80% CI: 70.1, 74.4%.

Ethnic composition: North Lincolnshire

024497397% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 61% in 2061White Other 16% in 2061Asian 7% in 2061Mixed 7% in 2061Other 8% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: North Lincolnshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
92%
2021
89%
2031proj
85%
2041proj
79%
10%
2051proj
71%
13%
2061proj
61%
16%
8%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in North Lincolnshire ranges from57.4% to 74.4%by 2051. That is a 17pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 63.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.6% (2021) → 3.3% (2051). Christian 55.2% → 13.1%.

Religion: North Lincolnshire

022446688%Census 2021Christian 13% in 2051No religion 83% in 2051Muslim 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

9.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.28). 93.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: North Lincolnshire

427507396%Census 2021UK-born 55% in 2051Foreign-born 45% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.8% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black13.4% internal, 7.7% international
other12.5% internal, 4.7% international
white other11.3% internal, 3.3% international
asian8.8% internal, 2.4% international
mixed10% internal, 1.2% international
white british7.5% internal, 0.2% international

Why North Lincolnshire is changing

-3.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1pp
Local migration
+3.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View North Lincolnshire on UK Demographics →