Trend
+1 Latest quarter change
+290 Change across series
48 Official data points
Oldham
796 on asylum support. Rank 32 nationally, 6 in North West. Rate: 31.64 per 10,000 (88th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Oldham has 796 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 32 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 31.64 per 10,000 residents places it around the 88th percentile. 151 are in contingency accommodation (19% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Oldham
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 633
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 12
Contingency accommodation 151
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 169
Afghan programme 58
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,023
Share of local population 0.41%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Oldham: WBI 65.2% (2021) → 29.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2035. 80% CI: 25.1–29.8%.
Ethnic composition — Oldham
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 25.6% (2021) → 35.6% (2051). Christian 47.1% → 10.8%.
Religion — Oldham
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
16.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.55). 89.3% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Oldham
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Why Oldham is changing
-10.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.3%
Mixed 63.7%
White Other 65.3%
Other 48.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 62.3%
Mixed 33.9%
White Other 40%
Other 30.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.4%
Mixed 26.4%
White Other 29.6%
Other 22.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 45,756 pupils. 48.1% White British. Schools are 17.1pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 48.1%
Asian 34.4%
Black 6.6%
Mixed 6.1%
White Other 3.1%
Other 1.7%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
51.9% Minority pupils now
62.1% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
796 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
31.64 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
151 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.