Trend
+1 Latest quarter change
+443 Change across series
48 Official data points
Pendle
448 on asylum support. Rank 78 nationally, 20 in North West. Rate: 44.9 per 10,000 (96th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Pendle has 448 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 78 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 44.9 per 10,000 residents places it around the 96th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Pendle
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 447
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 1
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 145
Afghan programme 66
Resettlement cumulative 125
Population context
All pathways total 659
Share of local population 0.66%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Pendle: WBI 66.1% (2021) → 28.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2034. 80% CI: 25.7–30.3%.
Ethnic composition — Pendle
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 27.5% (2021) → 51.6% (2051). Christian 41.4% → 9.1%.
Religion — Pendle
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
17.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.5). 87.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Pendle
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Why Pendle is changing
-11.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.7%
Mixed 65.3%
White Other 77.2%
Other 57.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.3%
Mixed 44.8%
White Other 29.3%
Other 30.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 25.5%
Mixed 29.8%
White Other 22.2%
Other 21.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
96.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (72th percentile). Down 2.2% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
96.8 Per 1,000 residents
156 Hate crimes
35.4 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 418 per 10,000 pupils (60th percentile). 5-year growth: +41.2%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,342 Total EHCPs
27.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £568 per capita (72th percentile).
£568 Gross spend per capita
402 Residential per 10k 65+
18.3 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
648 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 80.0/100.
High pressure
44.9 Asylum rate /10k
-1.11pp WB annual change
96.8 Crime /1,000
+41.2% SEND 5yr growth
£568 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
448 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
44.9 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.