Trend
+20 Latest quarter change
+426 Change across series
48 Official data points
Preston
429 on asylum support. Rank 83 nationally, 22 in North West. Rate: 26.34 per 10,000 (84th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Preston has 429 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 83 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 26.34 per 10,000 residents places it around the 84th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Preston
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 422
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 7
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 175
Afghan programme 187
Resettlement cumulative 55
Population context
All pathways total 791
Share of local population 0.49%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Preston: WBI 66.1% (2021) → 32.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2035. 80% CI: 27.7–33.9%.
Ethnic composition — Preston
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 17.0% (2021) → 30.4% (2051). Christian 50.4% → 14.6%.
Religion — Preston
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
19.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.58). 87.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Preston
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Why Preston is changing
-9.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.9%
Mixed 64.1%
White Other 75.5%
Other 50.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 62.4%
Mixed 33.2%
White Other 29.2%
Other 29.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.7%
Mixed 30.5%
White Other 31%
Other 38%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
429 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
26.34 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.