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North West

Ribble Valley

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Maya Ellis
Maya EllisLabour · Ribble Valley
24 people on asylum support in Ribble Valley

Rank 267 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.59 per 10,000 puts Ribble Valley in the 37th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. Accommodation and support for 24 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.9M a year.

What asylum costs Ribble Valley

£542Kestimated hotel costs/year
£61Ksubsistence payments/year
£29KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 24 people on asylum support in Ribble Valley(0.03% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Ribble Valley: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

31
3725120Sept 2016Dec 2025Peak Jun 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 201610
Dec 201610
Mar 201718
Jun 201718
Sept 201712
Dec 201718
Mar 201818
Jun 201818
Sept 201819
Dec 201817
Mar 201917
Jun 201917
Sept 201916
Dec 201921
Mar 202020
Jun 202020
Sept 202012
Dec 202010
Mar 202110
Jun 202119
Sept 202117
Dec 202111
Mar 202210
Jun 202216
Sept 202216
Dec 202216
Mar 202315
Jun 202319
Sept 202320
Dec 202319
Mar 202417
Jun 202419
Sept 202413
Dec 202424
Mar 202528
Jun 202537
Sept 202530
Dec 202531

Trend

+1Latest quarter change
+21Change across series
38Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation24
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
24
Homes for Ukraine
150
Afghan programme
10
Resettlement cumulative
28

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine150
Afghan programme10
Resettlement cumulative28

Population context

All pathways total184
Share of local population0.27%

Ethnic composition projection

Ribble Valley: White British 94.1% (2021) to 68.3% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Ribble Valley

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 68% in 2051White Other 8% in 2051Asian 12% in 2051Black 5% in 2051Mixed 3% in 2051Other 3% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Ribble Valley

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
96%
2021
94%
2026proj
91%
2031proj
87%
2036proj
83%
2041proj
78%
8%
2046proj
73%
10%
2051proj
68%
8%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Ribble Valley ranges from40.9% to 70.6%by 2051. That is a 29.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 50.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.4% (2021) → 3.1% (2051). Christian 70.1% → 20.1%.

Religion: Ribble Valley

020406181%Census 2021Christian 20% in 2051No religion 76% in 2051Muslim 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

4.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.17). 98.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Ribble Valley

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 74% in 2051Foreign-born 26% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.2% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black19.2% internal, 6.4% international
other13.1% internal, 7.1% international
white other11.1% internal, 5.2% international
mixed14% internal, 1.5% international
asian9.7% internal, 2% international
white british9% internal, 0.3% international

Why Ribble Valley is changing

-1.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.3pp
Local migration
+5.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Ribble Valley on UK Demographics →