Trend
-2 Latest quarter change
+221 Change across series
39 Official data points
Rossendale
243 on asylum support. Rank 127 nationally, 31 in North West. Rate: 33.27 per 10,000 (89th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Rossendale has 243 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 127 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 33.27 per 10,000 residents places it around the 89th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Rossendale
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 243
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 0
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 102
Afghan programme 26
Resettlement cumulative 40
Population context
All pathways total 371
Share of local population 0.51%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Rossendale: WBI 90.4% (2021) → 84.0% (2051). 80% CI: 70–75.1%.
Ethnic composition — Rossendale
White British Asian Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 5.2% (2021) → 5.2% (2051). Christian 51.5% → 11.1%.
Religion — Rossendale
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.24). 97.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Rossendale
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Rossendale is changing
-1.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 60.4%
Mixed 69.3%
White Other 63.6%
Other 51.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 68.4%
Mixed 62%
White Other 60.7%
Other 47.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.3%
Mixed 38%
White Other 42.3%
Other 38.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
68.2 crimes per 1,000 residents (24th percentile). Down 0.4% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
68.2 Per 1,000 residents
54 Hate crimes
24.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 348 per 10,000 pupils (20th percentile). 5-year growth: +34.2%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
842 Total EHCPs
31.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £498 per capita (28th percentile).
£498 Gross spend per capita
362 Residential per 10k 65+
19.2 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
524 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 41.0/100.
33.3 Asylum rate /10k
-0.15pp WB annual change
68.2 Crime /1,000
+34.2% SEND 5yr growth
£498 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
243 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
33.27 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.