Trend
+14 Latest quarter change
+158 Change across series
48 Official data points
Salford
706 on asylum support. Rank 44 nationally, 10 in North West. Rate: 23.99 per 10,000 (83rd percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Salford has 706 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 44 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 23.99 per 10,000 residents places it around the 83rd percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Salford
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 686
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 20
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 431
Afghan programme 164
Resettlement cumulative 2
Population context
All pathways total 1,301
Share of local population 0.44%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Salford: WBI 74.0% (2021) → 25.6% (2051). White British minority by ~2037. 80% CI: 31.6–39%.
Ethnic composition — Salford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 5.3% (2021) → 17.4% (2051). Christian 50.8% → 9.2%.
Religion — Salford
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
19% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.53). 88.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Salford
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Salford is changing
-10.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.1%
Mixed 71.2%
White Other 77.3%
Other 57.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 50.3%
Mixed 29.1%
White Other 31%
Other 23%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 32.1%
Mixed 43.6%
White Other 42.8%
Other 40.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 38,185 pupils. 62.1% White British. Schools are 11.9pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 62.1%
Mixed 10.6%
Black 9.9%
White Other 7.5%
Asian 5.6%
Other 4.3%
What this means
Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
37.9% Minority pupils now
60.8% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
706 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
23.99 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.