Trend
+20 Latest quarter change
+432 Change across series
48 Official data points
Sefton
434 on asylum support. Rank 82 nationally, 21 in North West. Rate: 15.16 per 10,000 (68th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Sefton has 434 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 82 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 15.16 per 10,000 residents places it around the 68th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Sefton
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 425
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 9
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 410
Afghan programme 71
Resettlement cumulative 128
Population context
All pathways total 915
Share of local population 0.32%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Sefton: WBI 91.8% (2021) → 74.8% (2051). 80% CI: 66.8–72.5%.
Ethnic composition — Sefton
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 0.8% (2021) → 2.4% (2051). Christian 67.8% → 17.3%.
Religion — Sefton
Christian No religion
Nativity
6.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.22). 96.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Sefton
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Sefton is changing
-3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56%
Mixed 65.4%
White Other 70.3%
Other 56.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 68.6%
Mixed 49.7%
White Other 44.2%
Other 37.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.4%
Mixed 35.8%
White Other 38.3%
Other 33.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 40,061 pupils. 86.8% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 86.8%
White Other 4.2%
Mixed 3.4%
Asian 2.5%
Black 1.9%
Other 1.3%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
13.2% Minority pupils now
25.5% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
434 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
15.16 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.