Trend
-14 Latest quarter change
+373 Change across series
40 Official data points
South Ribble
377 on asylum support. Rank 96 nationally, 27 in North West. Rate: 32.47 per 10,000 (89th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
South Ribble has 377 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 96 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 32.47 per 10,000 residents places it around the 89th percentile. 142 are in contingency accommodation (37.7% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in South Ribble
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 229
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 6
Contingency accommodation 142
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 120
Afghan programme 107
Resettlement cumulative 49
Population context
All pathways total 604
Share of local population 0.52%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
South Ribble: WBI 92.8% (2021) → 85.3% (2051). 80% CI: 77.5–81.5%.
Ethnic composition — South Ribble
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.0% (2021) → 2.0% (2051). Christian 65.1% → 14.8%.
Religion — South Ribble
Christian No religion
Nativity
5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 97.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — South Ribble
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why South Ribble is changing
-2.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.6%
Mixed 70.2%
White Other 73.5%
Other 66.4%
Homeownership rate
White British 77.6%
Mixed 59.8%
White Other 58.3%
Other 51.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.7%
Mixed 34.6%
White Other 38.4%
Other 41.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
58.4 crimes per 1,000 residents (16th percentile). Up 0.8% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
58.4 Per 1,000 residents
72 Hate crimes
21.2 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 328 per 10,000 pupils (16th percentile). 5-year growth: +33.1%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,124 Total EHCPs
34.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £472 per capita (12th percentile).
£472 Gross spend per capita
338 Residential per 10k 65+
19.5 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
548 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 37.7/100.
32.5 Asylum rate /10k
-0.24pp WB annual change
58.4 Crime /1,000
+33.1% SEND 5yr growth
£472 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
377 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
32.47 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
142 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.