Trend
-144 Latest quarter change
+464 Change across series
48 Official data points
Southwark
532 on asylum support. Rank 64 nationally, 9 in London. Rate: 16.9 per 10,000 (73rd percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Southwark has 532 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 64 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 16.9 per 10,000 residents places it around the 73rd percentile. 416 are in contingency accommodation (78.2% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Southwark
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 31
Initial accommodation 65
Subsistence only 20
Contingency accommodation 416
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 991
Afghan programme 65
Resettlement cumulative 53
Population context
All pathways total 1,588
Share of local population 0.5%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Southwark: WBI 35.5% (2021) → 7.8% (2051). 80% CI: 7.6–11.5%.
Ethnic composition — Southwark
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 10.4% (2021) → 10.4% (2051). Christian 46.7% → 18.1%.
Religion — Southwark
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
40.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.86). 82% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Southwark
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Southwark is changing
-4.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 68.4%
Mixed 72.4%
White Other 80.5%
Other 68.4%
Homeownership rate
White British 32.7%
Mixed 24.6%
White Other 31.7%
Other 17.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 54%
Mixed 49.4%
White Other 66.1%
Other 37.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 39,811 pupils. 20.5% White British. Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Black 38.8%
White British 20.5%
Mixed 15%
White Other 10.4%
Other 8%
Asian 7.3%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
79.5% Minority pupils now
86% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
532 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
16.9 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
416 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.