Trend
-22 Latest quarter change
+470 Change across series
48 Official data points
Tower Hamlets
494 on asylum support. Rank 70 nationally, 11 in London. Rate: 14.88 per 10,000 (68th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Tower Hamlets has 494 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 70 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 14.88 per 10,000 residents places it around the 68th percentile. 96 are in contingency accommodation (19.4% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Tower Hamlets
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 380
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 18
Contingency accommodation 96
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 795
Afghan programme 22
Resettlement cumulative 21
Population context
All pathways total 1,311
Share of local population 0.4%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Tower Hamlets: WBI 22.9% (2021) → 7.4% (2051). 80% CI: 6.1–9.2%.
Ethnic composition — Tower Hamlets
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 42.9% (2021) → 40.3% (2051). Christian 23.9% → 8.1%.
Religion — Tower Hamlets
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
46.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.81). 73% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Tower Hamlets
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Tower Hamlets is changing
-8.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.5%
Mixed 74.1%
White Other 85.2%
Other 64.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 26.6%
Mixed 23.6%
White Other 24.7%
Other 17.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 44.7%
Mixed 56.7%
White Other 70.2%
Other 50.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 44,321 pupils. 7.5% White British. Schools are 15.4pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 67.3%
Black 9.1%
Mixed 8.3%
White British 7.5%
White Other 4.8%
Other 3%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
92.5% Minority pupils now
90.2% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
494 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
14.88 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
96 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.