Trend
-67 Latest quarter change
+344 Change across series
48 Official data points
Trafford
407 on asylum support. Rank 87 nationally, 25 in North West. Rate: 16.89 per 10,000 (72nd percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Trafford has 407 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 87 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 16.89 per 10,000 residents places it around the 72nd percentile. 323 are in contingency accommodation (79.4% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Trafford
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 82
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 323
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 427
Afghan programme 60
Resettlement cumulative 20
Population context
All pathways total 894
Share of local population 0.37%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Trafford: WBI 72.1% (2021) → 27.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2038. 80% CI: 29–33.8%.
Ethnic composition — Trafford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 9.2% (2021) → 15.6% (2051). Christian 51.0% → 10.8%.
Religion — Trafford
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
14.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.55). 92.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Trafford
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Trafford is changing
-8.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.3%
Mixed 68.3%
White Other 69.7%
Other 61.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 71.2%
Mixed 46.4%
White Other 60.6%
Other 50.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 42%
Mixed 44.1%
White Other 51.5%
Other 56.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 43,374 pupils. 55% White British. Schools are 17.1pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 55%
Asian 23.2%
Mixed 9.2%
Black 4.9%
White Other 4.6%
Other 3%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
45% Minority pupils now
59.3% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
407 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
16.89 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
323 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.