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London

Waltham Forest

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dr Neil Hudson
Dr Neil HudsonConservative · Epping Forest

7 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Waltham Forest.

161 people on asylum support in Waltham Forest

Rank 150 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 5.67 per 10,000 puts Waltham Forest in the 47th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 46 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 161 people at £107 per person per day is about £6.3M a year.

What asylum costs Waltham Forest

£3.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£412Ksubsistence payments/year
£193KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 161 people on asylum support in Waltham Forest(0.17% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Waltham Forest: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

185
8005332670Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014161
Jun 2014188
Sept 2014195
Dec 2014182
Mar 2015178
Jun 2015184
Sept 2015175
Dec 2015143
Mar 2016142
Jun 2016218
Sept 2016218
Dec 2016236
Mar 2017196
Jun 2017192
Sept 2017166
Dec 2017193
Mar 2018211
Jun 2018236
Sept 2018237
Dec 2018220
Mar 2019198
Jun 2019232
Sept 2019244
Dec 2019229
Mar 2020222
Jun 2020244
Sept 2020263
Dec 2020268
Mar 2021276
Jun 2021255
Sept 2021261
Dec 2021269
Mar 2022297
Jun 2022336
Sept 2022353
Dec 2022721
Mar 2023764
Jun 2023800
Sept 2023717
Dec 2023533
Mar 2024240
Jun 2024205
Sept 2024204
Dec 2024172
Mar 2025224
Jun 2025212
Sept 2025177
Dec 2025185

Trend

+8Latest quarter change
+24Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation115
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only46
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
161
Homes for Ukraine
928
Afghan programme
185
Resettlement cumulative
88

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine928
Afghan programme185
Resettlement cumulative88

Population context

All pathways total1,274
Share of local population0.45%

Ethnic composition projection

Waltham Forest: White British 34.0% (2021) to 24.5% (2051). 80% CI: 23.1, 27.3%.

Ethnic composition: Waltham Forest

010213141% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 22% in 2061White Other 16% in 2061Asian 16% in 2061Black 7% in 2061Mixed 16% in 2061Other 23% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Waltham Forest

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
36%
16%
21%
20%
2021
34%
19%
20%
15%
2031proj
31%
19%
20%
13%
8%
9%
2041proj
27%
19%
19%
11%
10%
13%
2051proj
25%
18%
18%
9%
13%
18%
2061proj
22%
16%
16%
16%
23%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Waltham Forest ranges from21.6% to 24.5%by 2051. That is a 2.9pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 22.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 23.2% (2021) → 12.6% (2051). Christian 42.0% → 12.4%.

Religion: Waltham Forest

723385368%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 63% in 2051Muslim 13% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

38.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.91). 77.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Waltham Forest

2135506579%Census 2021UK-born 26% in 2051Foreign-born 74% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.5% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
white other14.6% internal, 2.1% international
mixed10.6% internal, 0.7% international
other9% internal, 1.5% international
white british9.7% internal, 0.4% international
asian6.5% internal, 1% international
black6.6% internal, 0.6% international

Why Waltham Forest is changing

-2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+3.5pp
Local migration
+0.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Waltham Forest on UK Demographics →