Trend
-13 Latest quarter change
+454 Change across series
45 Official data points
Warrington
456 on asylum support. Rank 76 nationally, 19 in North West. Rate: 21.17 per 10,000 (78th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Warrington has 456 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 76 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 21.17 per 10,000 residents places it around the 78th percentile. 227 are in contingency accommodation (49.8% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Warrington
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 225
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 227
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 336
Afghan programme 28
Resettlement cumulative 48
Population context
All pathways total 820
Share of local population 0.38%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Warrington: WBI 88.1% (2021) → 59.8% (2051). White British minority by ~2058. 80% CI: 56.8–62.9%.
Ethnic composition — Warrington
White British White Other Asian Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.8% (2021) → 4.0% (2051). Christian 59.8% → 13.6%.
Religion — Warrington
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
9.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.29). 94.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Warrington
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Warrington is changing
-4.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.3%
Mixed 70%
White Other 81.1%
Other 65.4%
Homeownership rate
White British 71.6%
Mixed 54.1%
White Other 37.6%
Other 45.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 32.6%
Mixed 38.6%
White Other 38%
Other 38.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 32,781 pupils. 77.3% White British. Schools are 10.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 77.3%
Asian 9.5%
White Other 5.6%
Mixed 4.4%
Black 2%
Other 1.1%
What this means
Schools are 11pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
22.7% Minority pupils now
35.3% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
456 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
21.17 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
227 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.