Trend
+0 Latest quarter change
+405 Change across series
43 Official data points
West Lancashire
409 on asylum support. Rank 86 nationally, 24 in North West. Rate: 33.53 per 10,000 (90th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
West Lancashire has 409 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 86 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 33.53 per 10,000 residents places it around the 90th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in West Lancashire
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 408
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 1
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 223
Afghan programme 125
Resettlement cumulative 75
Population context
All pathways total 757
Share of local population 0.62%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
West Lancashire: WBI 92.8% (2021) → 79.2% (2051). 80% CI: 75.9–81.9%.
Ethnic composition — West Lancashire
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 1.0% (2051). Christian 65.2% → 14.0%.
Religion — West Lancashire
Christian No religion
Nativity
6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.19). 96.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — West Lancashire
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why West Lancashire is changing
-2.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.5%
Mixed 64%
White Other 77%
Other 63.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 73%
Mixed 61.4%
White Other 41.9%
Other 48.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.9%
Mixed 32.2%
White Other 30.6%
Other 40.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
54.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (12th percentile). Up 0.3% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
54.8 Per 1,000 residents
48 Hate crimes
19.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 312 per 10,000 pupils (8th percentile). 5-year growth: +31.4%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,042 Total EHCPs
35.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £478 per capita (16th percentile).
£478 Gross spend per capita
348 Residential per 10k 65+
19.4 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
624 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 37.1/100.
33.5 Asylum rate /10k
-0.27pp WB annual change
54.8 Crime /1,000
+31.4% SEND 5yr growth
£478 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
409 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
33.53 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.