Trend
+1 Latest quarter change
+362 Change across series
43 Official data points
Wyre
364 on asylum support. Rank 101 nationally, 28 in North West. Rate: 30.65 per 10,000 (88th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 North West region
Summary
Wyre has 364 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 101 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 30.65 per 10,000 residents places it around the 88th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Wyre
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 363
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 1
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 127
Afghan programme 25
Resettlement cumulative 83
Population context
All pathways total 516
Share of local population 0.43%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Wyre: WBI 95.7% (2021) → 93.4% (2051). 80% CI: 87.4–90.3%.
Ethnic composition — Wyre
White British Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 0.4% (2021) → 0.5% (2051). Christian 63.1% → 11.8%.
Religion — Wyre
Christian No religion
Nativity
3.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.13). 98.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Wyre
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Wyre is changing
-1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 53%
Mixed 61.8%
White Other 64%
Other 57.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 74.6%
Mixed 57.4%
White Other 59.8%
Other 44%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 28%
Mixed 34.7%
White Other 38.4%
Other 40.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
52.1 crimes per 1,000 residents (8th percentile). Up 0.1% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
52.1 Per 1,000 residents
42 Hate crimes
18.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 308 per 10,000 pupils (4th percentile). 5-year growth: +30.2%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
842 Total EHCPs
36.1% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £462 per capita (4th percentile).
£462 Gross spend per capita
388 Residential per 10k 65+
19.3 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
524 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 27.9/100.
30.6 Asylum rate /10k
-0.10pp WB annual change
52.1 Crime /1,000
+30.2% SEND 5yr growth
£462 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
364 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
30.65 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.