Trend
-121 Latest quarter change
+270 Change across series
22 Official data points
York
272 on asylum support. Rank 119 nationally, 13 in Yorkshire and The Humber. Rate: 13 per 10,000 (62nd percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
Summary
York has 272 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 119 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 13 per 10,000 residents places it around the 62nd percentile. 260 are in contingency accommodation (95.6% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in York
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 0
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 12
Contingency accommodation 260
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 436
Afghan programme 156
Resettlement cumulative 111
Population context
All pathways total 864
Share of local population 0.41%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
York: WBI 87.3% (2021) → 72.9% (2051). 80% CI: 63.5–71.5%.
Ethnic composition — York
White British White Other Asian Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.3% (2021) → 1.0% (2051). Christian 47.1% → 9.3%.
Religion — York
Christian No religion
Nativity
10.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.31). 94.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — York
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why York is changing
-2.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58%
Mixed 60.1%
White Other 72.3%
Other 55.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.8%
Mixed 43.8%
White Other 44%
Other 31.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 37.7%
Mixed 42.3%
White Other 53.7%
Other 48.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 24,830 pupils. 81.9% White British. Schools are 5.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 81.9%
White Other 6.5%
Asian 4.4%
Mixed 4.2%
Black 1.8%
Other 1.2%
What this means
Schools are 5pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
18.1% Minority pupils now
29.2% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
272 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
13 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
260 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.