Quarter-end stock, not throughput
Supported asylum counts show how many people were receiving support at the end of the period. They are not new claims, arrivals, or the number of distinct people seen across the period.
Cardiff
Official local-authority snapshot as at 2025-12-31. This page keeps live route data and local hotel evidence on one place-level surface so pressure can be read in context. Supported asylum here means people on support at that quarter end, not the number of different people whose claims were processed locally, and not a one-word substitute for the backlog.
Wales Population 383,919 Supported asylum 1,418
How to read the asylum numbers here
A flat or slowly moving local line does not prove the same people stayed on support, and it does not prove claims were not being processed. It only shows the quarter-end stock that remained on support, which overlaps with but is not identical to the awaiting-decision backlog.
Support is not the same thing as the backlog
People awaiting an initial decision and people on asylum support overlap, but they are not identical groups. Some supported people are further into appeals or on other support routes, while some people awaiting an initial decision are not in the published support count.
Processing and exits move the stock
The stock changes when people enter support and when they leave it through case progression, including grants, refusals, withdrawals, departures, or moves out of the published support categories.
Flat local lines can still hide churn
A place hovering around the same level can mean low movement, or heavy turnover with inflows offset by exits. The published local tables do not show how many different people passed through support in that area.
Quarter-end supported asylum stock in Cardiff
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Trend readout Dec 2025
Recent path and evidence quality
-45 since Sept 2025
-3.1% net change in quarter-end stock by the latest step.
+ 439 across the visible series
+44.8% change in quarter-end stock from the first visible point to Dec 2025.
48 official quarter points
The visible trend line is built entirely from official quarter-end supported asylum values in the local area series.
Interactive place drill-down
Switch metric and comparison frame to read Cardiff as a pressure leader, rate outlier, contingency site, or three-pathway case without leaving the page.
Cardiff currently leads Wales on supported asylum.
Supported asylum Wales
Quarter-end asylum-support stock for this local authority, not the number of distinct people who passed through support.
Cardiff currently leads Wales on supported asylum.
Supported asylum United Kingdom
Quarter-end asylum-support stock for this local authority, not the number of distinct people who passed through support.
Cardiff ranks 14 of 361 nationally on supported asylum.
Supported asylum rate Wales
Rate per 10,000 residents, which shows local intensity more cleanly than raw volume alone.
Cardiff currently leads Wales on supported asylum rate.
Supported asylum rate United Kingdom
Rate per 10,000 residents, which shows local intensity more cleanly than raw volume alone.
Cardiff ranks 26 of 361 nationally on supported asylum rate.
Contingency accommodation Wales
Hotel and contingency placements recorded in the latest quarter-end local-authority snapshot.
Cardiff currently leads Wales on contingency accommodation.
Contingency accommodation United Kingdom
Hotel and contingency placements recorded in the latest quarter-end local-authority snapshot.
Cardiff ranks 105 of 361 nationally on contingency accommodation.
Three-pathway total Wales
Combined supported asylum, Homes for Ukraine arrivals, and Afghan programme population.
Cardiff currently leads Wales on three-pathway total.
Three-pathway total United Kingdom
Combined supported asylum, Homes for Ukraine arrivals, and Afghan programme population.
Cardiff ranks 23 of 361 nationally on three-pathway total.
Pathway breakdown
The local picture only becomes legible when supported asylum, contingency use, Ukraine arrivals, and Afghan programme population are kept distinct.
What stands out here
Cardiff is carrying a real asylum-support load
1,418 people are on asylum support here at quarter end, with a rate of 36.93 per 10,000 residents. 74 are in contingency accommodation.
1,978 people across the main local pathways
This combines supported asylum, Homes for Ukraine arrivals, and Afghan programme population, representing 0.52% of the local population.
Public hotel evidence is still thin here
No named current hotel site is attached to this area in the starter ledger yet.
National benchmarks
These strips show where Cardiff sits in the national distribution for the most important place-level pressure measures.
Supported asylum count
1,418 National distribution across all local-authority rows.
Supported asylum rate
36.93 Rate per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
74 Hotel and other contingency placements.
Regional pressure context
Wales is highlighted so this place can be read inside the wider regional supported asylum map.
Editorial readout
These cards translate the data into the most defensible local claims the site can make right now.
Volume
Cardiff is outside the top ten by volume, but still carries a material local load
Cardiff ranks 14 nationally and 1 in Wales for supported asylum count, placing it around the 96th percentile of local authorities by volume.
Intensity
Intensity is stronger than the raw count alone suggests
The supported asylum rate here is 36.93 per 10,000 residents, around the 93th percentile nationally. This matters because smaller places can carry a sharper load than bigger city totals imply.
Accommodation model
The local picture leans more toward dispersal than contingency pressure
74 people are in contingency accommodation here, around 5.2% of the supported asylum population and roughly the 71th percentile by contingency count.
Visibility
The hotel layer is still mostly invisible in public records here
No named current site or unnamed acknowledged count is attached to this area yet, which is itself a reminder that absence of public evidence is not evidence of absence.
Local route metrics
The area profile should show route composition, not force users to infer it from a single asylum count.
Asylum support
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,236
Initial accommodation 89
Subsistence only 19
Contingency accommodation 74
Ukraine and Afghan pathways
Other current routes in this place
Homes for Ukraine arrivals 486
Afghan programme population 74
Afghan local authority housing 25
Afghan private rented housing 49
Historical routes
Resettlement history
Resettlement cumulative total 105
UK resettlement and family reunion cumulative 105
Community sponsorship cumulative 0
Latest resettlement quarter 2021 Q3 (5)
Regional peer frame
The regional ranking matters because high-pressure areas compete for attention with their nearest peers, not just with the national top ten.
Local reading Wales
How this place reads in context
Cardiff sits 14 nationally by supported asylum count and 1 within Wales. The raw volume is 1,418, but the rate of 36.93 per 10,000 residents gives a cleaner sense of local intensity than the headline count on its own.
Homes for Ukraine is the largest non-asylum pathway in this area at 486. That matters because the local story is not just about one route family; it is about how asylum support, humanitarian schemes, and historic resettlement stack together in one place.
Wales as a whole currently carries 3,353 people on supported asylum, with a weighted regional rate of 10.52 per 10,000 residents. This page puts Cardiff inside that wider regional pressure field instead of treating it as an isolated case.
Hotel evidence for this place
Place pages should merge live route data with the named and unnamed hotel evidence already on the public record.
Evidence gap
No public hotel evidence logged yet
That does not mean the area has no hotel use. It means the ledger has no publishable public evidence row attached yet.