Trend
+19 Latest quarter change
+333 Change across series
48 Official data points
Basildon
Mr Richard Holden
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Basildon.
354 people housed on asylum support in Basildon
Rank 90 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 18.28 per 10,000 puts Basildon in the 77th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2048. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £19M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Basildon
£7.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£905Ksubsistence payments/year
£425KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 354 people on asylum support in Basildon (0.33% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Basildon: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 351
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 306
Afghan programme 36
Resettlement cumulative 4
Population context
All pathways total 696
Share of local population 0.36%
Ethnic composition projection
Basildon: WBI 82.1% (2021) → 44.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2048. 80% CI: 51.3–55.7%.
Ethnic composition: Basildon
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Basildon
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Basildon ranges from 55.2% to 68.6% by 2051. That is a 13.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.9% (2021) → 7.1% (2051). Christian 49.1% → 11.9%.
Religion: Basildon
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
11.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.41). 94.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Basildon
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.4% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
other 10.8% internal, 3.8% international
white other 12.6% internal, 1.6% international
asian 10.5% internal, 2.7% international
black 11% internal, 2.1% international
mixed 9.2% internal, 0.7% international
white british 6.7% internal, 0.1% international
Why Basildon is changing
-7.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Basildon on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.2%
Mixed 70.4%
White Other 76.6%
Other 68.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 65.2%
Mixed 49.6%
White Other 56.8%
Other 52.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 23.4%
Mixed 29.3%
White Other 40.3%
Other 41.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
354 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
18.28 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East of England by supported asylum.