Trend
-195 Latest quarter change
+1,396 Change across series
48 Official data points
Birmingham
Preet Kaur Gill
9 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Birmingham.
2,142 people housed on asylum support in Birmingham
Rank 2 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 18.1 per 10,000 puts Birmingham in the 76th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 589 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £117M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Birmingham
£42.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£5.5Msubsistence payments/year
£2.6MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 2,142 people on asylum support in Birmingham (2.00% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Birmingham: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,380
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 173
Contingency accommodation 589
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,370
Afghan programme 641
Resettlement cumulative 658
Population context
All pathways total 4,153
Share of local population 0.35%
Ethnic composition projection
Birmingham: WBI 42.9% (2021) → 10.8% (2051). 80% CI: 10.8–12.7%.
Ethnic composition: Birmingham
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Birmingham
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Birmingham ranges from 28.4% to 30.1% by 2051. That is a 1.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 29.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 31.8% (2021) → 53.5% (2051). Christian 36.2% → 9.6%.
Religion: Birmingham
Christian No religion Muslim Sikh
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
26.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.79). 84.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Birmingham
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.5% moved within UK, 1.2% arrived from abroad
white other 12.9% internal, 3.4% international
other 9.7% internal, 3.2% international
mixed 10.7% internal, 0.9% international
black 9.5% internal, 1.8% international
white british 8.5% internal, 0.2% international
asian 6.9% internal, 1.6% international
Why Birmingham is changing
-10.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Birmingham on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.9%
Mixed 60.2%
White Other 65.7%
Other 50.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 56.3%
Mixed 30.2%
White Other 40.3%
Other 34.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.1%
Mixed 29.6%
White Other 39.2%
Other 32.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 201,666 pupils. 24.7% White British. Schools are 18.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 39.1%
White British 24.7%
Black 14.4%
Mixed 10.5%
Other 6.5%
White Other 4.8%
What this means
Schools are 18pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
75.3% Minority pupils now
82.8% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
25.4% Primary WBI
23.1% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.79pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 29.7% vs school 24.7% (-5pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
2,142 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
18.1 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
589 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in West Midlands by supported asylum.